Winds of Change

Wind turbines on a green hillside at sunset
17 September 2024
CHAPTER 1 . OUR VISION

Winds of Change

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An example from a different industry that is transferring from a combustion business to a new, innovative non-combustion business. Through observing other businesses on their transformation journey, the initial solution may not be the optimal solution.*


AT A GLANCE

 

Ørsted’s metamorphosis from coal-fired giant to renewable energy pioneer is a remarkable story of sustainable business transformation.

85%

In 2009, it adopted a transformative strategy, called the 85/15 vision, to transition its power generation mix from 85% fossil fuel-based to 85% renewables-based by 2040

86%

By 2019, Ørsted was generating 86% of its power from renewables. Its 30-year transformation journey had been completed in just under 10 years

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Engineer with laptop overlooking wind turbine at sunset

Ørsted’s metamorphosis from coal-fired giant to renewable energy pioneer is a remarkable story of sustainable business transformation. In 2009, the Danish company generated more than 85% of its heat and power from coal. After embarking on a journey to pivot to clean energy, by 2019, the company was generating more than 85% of its heat and power from renewables, a complete inversion from its fossil-fuelled past.[1,2]

 

Ørsted started trading as DONG Energy in 2006 (Dansk Olie og Naturgas, meaning Danish Oil and Natural Gas). It built a strong business based on procuring, producing, distributing, and trading in energy and related products and dominated its traditional energy market. The company relied almost entirely on coal for its heat and power production.[3] However, following scientific consensus on the health risks and climate impact of fossil fuels, public opinion and policy maker stances rapidly shifted against its unrestricted use. This placed the company’s long-term future in jeopardy, despite its high level of profitability from fossil fuel energy.

 

During this time, global governments began prioritising sustainability to curb emissions. The Danish government started setting ambitious renewable energy targets and incentivised business to adapt.[4] In parallel, the government tightened air pollution regulations, raising costs for DONG Energy’s fossil fuel facilities.

 

In 2009, it adopted a transformative strategy, called the 85/15 vision, to transition its power generation mix from 85% fossil fuel-based to 85% renewables-based by 2040.[1]

 

This shift was partly enabled by government support, both financially and commercially, through long-term supply contracts, which helped de-risk the transformation. Over the next decade, the company steadily built up its renewable energy portfolio, focusing especially on European offshore wind farms. It effectively leveraged its legacy capabilities in offshore energy while adapting them to renewable solutions. Aggressive investment in innovative technologies and strategic partnerships across the ecosystem were also key.[1]

 

In parallel, the company was divesting its legacy businesses. It sold its oil and gas business in 2017 and committed to phase out all use of coal.^ It also changed its name to Ørsted, after the Danish scientist Hans Christian Ørsted, a pioneer in electrodynamics.[5]

 

By 2019, Ørsted was generating 86% of its power from renewables. Its 30-year transformation journey had been completed in just under 10 years. It had also become the world’s largest developer of offshore wind power, with its committed green energy capacity rising from ~8 GW in 2018 to ~15 GW in 2023, working towards a target of ~50 GW by 2030.[6,7]

Renewable share of heat and power production, as a percentage of total population

+99%

In addition to completely phasing out coal usage,^ the company is now aiming for 99% renewable heat and power generation by 2025.[1]

Several factors enabled Ørsted’s remarkable business transformation. Public acceptance of the need to shift from black to green energy catalysed social and political change. The sustained support and acceptance from the governments of Denmark and other countries provided visibility and facilitated access to long-term capital. The UK government, for example, partnered with Ørsted on several projects to help achieve its Net Zero ambitions.[8,9]

 

More recently, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act allowed offshore wind projects to claim tax credits, supporting Ørsted’s planned investments in that country.[10]

 

With its vision and ambition to build a combustion-free business, .rsted succeeded in getting multiple stakeholders on board. The key lesson here is that firms deeply entrenched in legacy combustion businesses can commit to a cleaner, healthier future and make meaningful progress, especially in an environment with broader public and government acceptance.

 

Ørsted’s transformation shows that incumbents can fundamentally change their core business and spearhead an industrywide transition by leveraging their scale, resources, and capabilities. With courage and conviction, we believe that leaders can transform their companies from symbols of environmental harm into catalysts for a smoke-free future.


Footnotes

* For the avoidance of doubt, no partnership or similar relationship exists between BAT and .rsted and nothing in this section is intended to indicate otherwise. The Ørsted figures have not been independently verified and certain industry and market data relating to Ørsted have come from third party sources. Third party publications, studies and surveys generally state that the data contained therein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but that there is no guarantee of accuracy or completeness of such data.

^ Ørsted’s target is to phase out coal before 2025. However, the Danish authorities have ordered Ørsted to continue and resume the operation of three of its power station units which use coal and oil until 31 August 2024.

 

References

[1] McKinsey & Company, Interview with Martin Neubert, Executive Vice President and CEO of Offshore Wind at Ørsted: Ørsted’s renewable energy transformation. 2020. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/orsteds-renewable-energytransformation (Accessed: 25 July 2024)

[2] Ørsted, In numbers: powering the world with green energy. Available at: https://orsted.com/en/who-we-are/our-purpose/powering-the-worldwith-green-energy (Accessed: 25 July 2024)

[3] Ørsted, Could our green transformation inspire yours? Available at: https://orsted.co.uk/about-us/our-company/our-green-energytransformation (Accessed: 25 July 2024)

[4] Danish Energy Agency, The Danish Energy Model. 2015. Available at: https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Globalcooperation/the_danish_energy_model.pdf

[5] Ørsted, Company announcement: DOING Energy to change company name to .rsted. 2017. Available at: https://orsted.com/en/companyannouncement-list/2017/10/1623554 (Accessed: 25 July 2024)

[6]Ørsted investor presentation, Capital Markets Day: 2018. 2018. Available at: https://orsted.com/-/media/www/docs/corp/com/investor/cmd2018/cmd-presentation-2018.pdf

[7] Ørsted, Capital Markets Day: .rsted confirms its ambition of ~50 GW renewable capacity by 2030 and strong financial outlook. 2018. Available at: https://orsted.com/en/media/news/2023/06/20230607684111 (Accessed: 25 July 2024)

[8] Ørsted, Renewable Hydrogen., Available at: https://orsted.co.uk/energy-solutions/renewable-hydrogen (Accessed: 25 July 2024)

[9] HM Government, UK Hydrogen Strategy. 2021. p. 34. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64c7e8bad8b1a70011b05e38/UK-Hydrogen-Strategy_web.pdf

[10] Mayer Brown, Offshore Wind and the US Inflation Reduction Act. 2022. Available at: https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2022/08/offshore-wind-and-the-us-inflation-reduction-act (Accessed: 2 August 2024)

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