Big Question 4 - Why Is THR Important to BAT?

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17 September 2024
CHAPTER 2 . THE BIG QUESTIONS

Big Question 4 - Why Is THR Important to BAT?

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KEY SUMMARY POINTS

01

There are approximately 115 million adult consumers of Smokeless Products, with Vapour Products the biggest contributor.[1,2,3]

02

In 25 of our global markets we have >30%  of our business in Smokeless Products.

03

Heated Products, Vapour Products, Oral Tobacco Products, and Oral Nicotine Pouches can deliver our commercially sustainable future.


THR is not only beneficial for public health, but a business opportunity for BAT. We aim to avoid mistakes of the type that led to the restructuring of Kodak, which once dominated the world market for consumer film and film processing. Kodak failed to appreciate that digital imaging would make film obsolete and did not evolve its business and product line accordingly.

“The downfall of such a titan was not just a business failure; it was emblematic of the perils that await companies that rest on their laurels. In the modern business landscape, where adaptability is king and innovation its queen, Kodak's story serves as a stark reminder. It underscores the significance of staying ahead of the curve, of recognising emerging trends, and of the dire consequences that can befall those who become complacent.”[4]

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Innovation drives the human race forward, whether it be to climb the highest mountains, descend to the depths of our oceans, travel to the moon, or split the atom. While books have been published and degree courses offered on innovation, it typically boils down to three core principles:
 

  • Value: solving a problem or an unmet need generating a benefit or return
  • Novelty: creation of something bespoke and new to the world
  • Process: a continuous activity that takes incremental steps or exponential leaps
     

For a company founded in 1902, BAT could not have imagined the disruption that would occur in the tobacco industry in the early 2010s, with the advent of Smokeless Products, and we did not want to have our own 'Kodak moment'.

 

A ‘win win win’ scenario 

Since the seminal publication of the UK British Doctors’ Study on smoking and health in the 1950s identified major health risks of smoking,[5] we have conducted extensive research into the issues related to smoking and health, and developed technologies that could reduce the levels of harmful chemicals in cigarette smoke, in essence to develop a ‘safer cigarette’ and reduce the public health burden of smoking. We spent more than 40 years pursuing multiple avenues of research, including conducting R&D activities into developing and scientifically assessing a Reduced Toxicant Prototype (RTP) cigarette. 

 

In our view an ideal business would:

  • Offer reduced-risk* and enjoyable tobacco and nicotine products to reduce the public health impact of smoking;
  • Offer reduced-risk* and enjoyable tobacco and nicotine products that adult smokers, who would otherwise continue to smoke, would choose to use; and
  • Create a sustainable business based on lower risk, consumer relevant, commercially relevant products.
     

While this undertaking proved to be unachievable with respect to cigarettes, a ‘win win win’ scenario arrived with the advent of Vapour Products in the early 2010s, and a new chapter began for BAT.

 

THR: enabling the transformation of BAT

As stated in the Research & Science Director's opening statement, our belief is that there are three dimensions that are enabling the transformation of BAT through THR:

  • Smokeless Products are increasingly being accepted as scientifically substantiated lower risk* relative to cigarettes.
  • Today we have 23.9 million adult consumers of our Smokeless Products.
  • Smokeless Products can ultimately create sustainable value for our shareholders.
     

Three commercial misconceptions about Smokeless Products:

  • The number of consumers of Smokeless Products has stalled.
  • Smokeless Products are not commercially sustainable.
  • Smokeless Products make up a fraction of tobacco companies’ business

The number of consumers of Smokeless Products is increasing

We decided on a multi-category approach to Smokeless Products as adult consumers' preferences vary across the globe, and no single product category would be sufficient to transition adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke. Where estimates vary depending on source, year on year. We have observed growth in each category (Figure 1) as more and more adult smokers transition, with Vapour Products being the largest category globally, followed by Heated Products and then Oral Nicotine Pouches.

 

Smokeless Products offer commercial sustainability

We are now in our second decade of our Smokeless Products business. In 2023, we exited with £3.35bn revenues from our Smokeless Products business and became profitable two years ahead of guidance.

 

While this is an important milestone, it tells only half the story as we have several markets around the world which are advancing extremely well on their profitability journey.

 

Longitudinal growth of Smokeless Products (Total Adult Consumers, millions)

Figure 1. Longitudinal growth of Smokeless Products (Total Adult Consumers, millions)[1,2,3]

50m

Our corporate ambition is to have 50 million consumers# of our Smokeless Products by 2030

 

>55%

More than half of the total Smokeless Product consumers use Vapour Products[1,2,3]

Smokeless Products make up an increasing share of our business

Aligned to our corporate ambition of having at least 50% of our revenues in Smokeless Products by 2035 we have 25 markets which are on their way to meeting this target (Figure 2).

 

While 45 out of 72 key markets allow the sale of our full portfolio of Smokeless Products (Heated Products, Vapour Products, and Oral Nicotine Pouches), we believe there are two significant impediments to accelerating Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR) on a global scale:
 

  • 38% of markets restrict one or more Smokeless Products.
  • More importantly, there are still markets where consumers cannot access any reduced-risk alternatives (e.g., Brazil). 
     

We will continue working with governmental regulators and stakeholders to enable the opening of these categories and markets. Open markets with regulatory compliance and enforcement of non-compliant products and manufacturers are key to creating A Better Tomorrow™ by Building a Smokeless World.

Figure 2. Global BAT markets which have Smokeless Product revenues^ greater than 30%

Figure 2. Global BAT markets which have Smokeless Product revenues^ greater than 30%


Footnotes

^ Revenue from Smokeless Products as a % of total revenue in each respective market as per 2024 Half-Year Results

* Based on the weight of evidence and assuming a complete switch from cigarette smoking. These products are not risk free and are addictive.

Our products as sold in the U.S., including Vuse, Velo, Grizzly, Kodiak, and Camel Snus, are subject to FDA regulation and no reduced-risk claims will be made as to these products without agency clearance.

# The number of consumers of Smokeless Products is defined as the estimated number of Legal Age (minimum 18 years) consumers of the Group’s Smokeless Products - which does not necessarily mean these consumers are solus consumers of these products. In markets where regular consumer tracking is in place, this estimate is obtained from adult consumer tracking studies conducted by third parties (including Kantar). In markets where regular consumer tracking is not in place, the number of consumers of Smokeless Products is derived from volume sales of consumables and devices in such markets, using consumption patterns obtained from other similar markets with adult consumer tracking (utilising studies conducted by third parties, including Kantar). 

 

References

[1] TobaccoIntelligence, Regulatory & Market Intelligence for Alternative Tobacco & Nicotine Products, Nicotine Pouch Market Database, Quarter 1 Report. 2024.

[2] TobaccoIntelligence, Regulatory & Market Intelligence for Alternative Tobacco & Nicotine Products, Heated Tobacco Market Database, Quarter 1 Report. 2024.

[3] ECigIntelligence, Regulatory & Market Intelligence for the e-Cigarette Sector, ECigIntelligence market database, July Report. 2024.

[4] Time forDesigns, The Downfall of Kodak: An Innovation Oversight. 2023. Available at: https://www.timefordesigns.com/blog/2023/11/02/the-downfall-of-kodak-an-innovation-oversight/ (Accessed: 17 July 2024)

[5] Doll, R., Cancer of the Lung. Br Med J, 1954. 2:1402. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.2.4901.1402-a

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